Chinese invasion of Taiwan 結果共10筆

Taiwan’s Deputy Minister of National Defense, Po Horng-huei, announces the military’s vigilance and readiness amidst concerns over potential Chinese provocations, especially around the inauguration of Taiwan’s President-elect Lai Ching-te. Po emphasizes the importance of peace and regional stability, responding to comments by former U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander John Aquilino and highlighting the military’s 24-hour readiness against any threats, including those projected for 2027 or 2035.

Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense asserts the futility of conflict if China’s flag is not planted at the Defense Ministry. Amid discussions on defense capabilities and American military aid, Minister Chiu emphasizes Taiwan’s self-reliance in defense matters.

A survey conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests that a crisis similar to the large-scale military exercises China conducted near Taiwan in 1995-96 is likely to occur in 2024. The survey, conducted in late 2023, revealed that about 67% of American and 57% of Taiwanese scholars anticipate such a crisis. However, experts believe that China is currently unable to successfully invade Taiwan. Instead, they suggest that China may pursue actions of isolation or blockade against Taiwan within the next five years. The survey defines a ＂Taiwan Strait crisis＂ as a significant escalation of tensions accompanied by major People’s Liberation Army exercises aimed at intimidating Taiwan and reaffirming China’s threats of force. Factors contributing to these views include China’s reaction to Taiwan’s election results, negative assessments of U.S.-China relations, and the belief that the November meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping did not sufficiently stabilize relations to reduce the potential for a crisis.

In a recent discussion with TVBS commentator Wenchi Yu, former AIT Chair Richard Bush delves into the complexities of Taiwan’s political landscape amidst rising cross-strait tensions and the upcoming 2024 presidential elections. He addresses China’s evolving coercion tactics and the U.S.’s readiness for any developments following Taiwan’s elections.

Former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso warned of the possibility of China occupying Kinmen, one of Taiwan’s off-shore islands, instead of launching a full-scale invasion. Aso emphasized the need for Japan and Australia to align with the United States in the face of China’s growing intentions to forcefully take Taiwan. He urged Japan to join the AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership formed by Australia, the U.K., and the U.S., to ensure an open and safe Indo-Pacific region. Aso believed that this strengthened partnership would contribute to stronger security politics in the region. The security cooperation between Japan and Australia aims to deter Chinese hegemonism. Aso expressed confidence that the envisioned Indo-Pacific security partnership would exert pressure on China’s military advancements.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden met in San Francisco, where Xi denied plans for military action against Taiwan in 2027 or 2035. The leaders discussed the significance of Taiwan in U.S.-China relations, with Biden emphasizing the U.S.’s commitment to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Xi stated the importance of seeking broader solutions while dispelling speculations of military action, asserting that there is no such plan.

Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang exercises, the country’s largest war games since 1984, aim to ensure combat readiness in the event of a Chinese invasion. Recent exercises have led the military to speculate that the northern areas of Taiwan could be a targeted point for a Chinese attack. The Tamsui River is analyzed as a potential point of entry for the People’s Liberation Army, as it provides access to critical regions like Hsinchu, Taoyuan, and Taipei. Public officials have demanded live-fire drills at the river mouth to inspect defense capabilities. However, conducting such drills poses challenges due to the densely populated area and existing operations of a nearby port. The use of explosives in the river could leave sediments that are difficult to track. Defense strategies require a comprehensive understanding of their effects, and alternative strategies are being considered to bolster defense in northern Taiwan.

A paper published by the Washington-based think tank Global Taiwanese Institute reveals findings of mainstream public opinion on Taiwanese defense. The paper, titled ＂Conversations with the Taiwanese about Taiwan’s Defense,＂ shows that 70 percent of Taiwanese are willing to fight in the event of a Chinese invasion, while 20 percent would leave and 10 percent would choose to surrender. The results are based on conversations conducted by Taiwanese-American U.S. Air Force captain Jimmy Chien during his six-week stay in Taiwan, which included discussions with university students and retirees. Chien’s research challenges the perception that increased military strength and pressure from China could lead to military action, as most Taiwanese do not consider this a likely scenario. He argues that Taiwanese people believe China must first address its domestic affairs before resorting to force against Taiwan. Chien also notes that Taiwanese people are aware that the U.S. military is unlikely to deploy troops in the event of a war, and therefore hope to receive non-combat aid, such as supplies and maintenance, from the U.S. as a show of support in battling enemy forces.

A potential war between the United States and Beijing over Taiwan could result in crippling losses for both sides, warns the Stimson Center. The article, titled ＂Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan the Most Likely Scenario?＂ highlights that a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan might trigger ground and aerial assaults from Beijing. A military simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies showed that a joint defense effort from the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan could repel a Chinese invasion but at devastating costs, including the loss of ships, aircraft, and troops. The war would also impact the U.S.’s global standing, hurt Taiwan’s economy, and potentially destabilize the Chinese Communist Party’s rule. China’s aerial superiority, with a ratio of 1900 to Taiwan’s 300, could result in airstrikes, missile and cyber attacks aimed at decimating Taiwan’s defenses and critical infrastructure. Simulations predict a rapid escalation of war, including potential bombing of U.S. military bases and a reciprocal U.S. attack on Chinese bases and navy. Any concrete steps taken towards official independence by Taiwan could serve as a catalyst prompting Beijing’s decision for forceful unification.

Taiwan’s military is preparing for a possible amphibious invasion from China by planning to simulate the scenario at one of the 14 ＂Red Beaches＂ identified as possible landing sites.